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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 42 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to HOU 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts ran ob at HOU 46 for 17 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model