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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 17

Houston Texans 21 – Atlanta Falcons 42

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 18-C.Shorts to ATL 16 for 1 yard (53-A.Bradford). FUMBLES (53-A.Bradford), RECOVERED by ATL-54-N.Stupar at ATL 16. 54-N.Stupar for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-18-C.Shorts was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.96 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.33 EP