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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 32

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass incomplete short right to 23-A.Foster.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model