4th & Data
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2015-10-05 · 20:30 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DET
31.7%
SEA
68.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.009 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.043 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 19
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DET

Joique Bell RB Out Ankle
Brandon Pettigrew TE Out Hamstring
DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Hip
Corey Robinson T Doubtful Ankle
Josh Wilson CB Questionable lower leg
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Groin
Larry Warford G Questionable Ankle
Jason Jones DE Probable Knee

SEA

Tharold Simon CB Out Toe
Steven Terrell S Out Hip
Demarcus Dobbs DE Questionable Shoulder
Marshawn Lynch RB Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Mebane DT Questionable Groin
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Bennett DE Probable Not Injury Related
Michael Morgan LB Probable Hamstring
Bobby Wagner LB Probable Ankle
Luke Willson TE Probable Back
K.J. Wright LB Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 10
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:03 TD SEA (11:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 05:20 FG DET (5:20) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 01:05 FG SEA (1:05) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. DET 3 – SEA 10
  • Q3 11:16 FG SEA (11:16) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. DET 3 – SEA 13
  • Q4 08:42 TD DET (8:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 30 for -6 yards (32-J.Ihedigbo). FUMBLES (32-J.Ihedigbo) [32-J.Ihedigbo], RECOVERED by DET-97-C.Reid at SEA 27. 97-C.Reid for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:54) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DET 14, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-T.Jones pushed ob at DET 22 for 8 yards (35-D.Shead).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (4:04) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for 5 yards (50-T.Lewis).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to DET 7, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-T.Jones to DET 16 for 9 yards (52-B.Coyle; 57-M.Morgan).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:06) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SEA 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (25-T.Riddick).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (5:20) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:18) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 17 for 10 yards (24-N.Lawson). DET-50-T.Lewis was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%

    (11:16) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:44) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to SEA 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-26-D.Carey at SEA 46. 26-D.Carey to SEA 46 for no gain (16-T.Lockett).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 24%

    (8:20) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to SEA 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 40%

    (2:33) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to DET 11, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:38) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SEA 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 47 for 14 yards (95-B.Copeland).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (11:06) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SEA 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 65 yards to DET 2, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET -3. 13-T.Jones to DET 9 for 12 yards (33-K.McCray).