4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 57

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for 5 yards (50-T.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP