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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to DET 11, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP