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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 50

Detroit Lions 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to SEA 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model