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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to DET 7, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-T.Jones to DET 16 for 9 yards (52-B.Coyle; 57-M.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.55 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model