Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 64

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(14:06) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SEA 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (25-T.Riddick).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.06 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model