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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DET 14, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-T.Jones pushed ob at DET 22 for 8 yards (35-D.Shead).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model