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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 65 yards to DET 2, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET -3. 13-T.Jones to DET 9 for 12 yards (33-K.McCray).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP