Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 62

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(10:54) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model