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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SD
70.5%
MIN
29.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.207 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.196 EPA/dropback
  • MIN offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 24
–
MIN 19
Projected margin: SD by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SD

Jahleel Addae S Out Ankle
Jacoby Jones WR Out Ankle
Johnnie Troutman G Out Forearm
Tourek Williams LB Out Foot
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Ankle
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Concussion
Jason Verrett CB Questionable Foot
Kyle Emanuel LB Probable Shoulder
Chris Hairston T Probable Knee
Chris Watt C Probable Groin

MIN

Brandon Fusco G Questionable Concussion
Shamar Stephen DT Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 14
–
MIN 31

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:19 FG MIN (1:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. SD 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 09:09 TD MIN (9:09) (Run formation) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 28-A.Peterson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 01:25 TD LAC (1:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-29-X.Rhodes was injured during the play. SD 6 – MIN 10
  • Q3 12:44 TD MIN (12:44) 28-A.Peterson right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 7 – MIN 16
  • Q3 02:45 TD MIN (2:45) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 48-Z.Line right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 7 – MIN 23
  • Q4 14:17 TD MIN (14:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 11-S.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 52-C.Greenway [97-E.Griffen] at MIN 9. 52-C.Greenway for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on MIN Bench SD 7 – MIN 30
  • Q4 00:36 TD LAC (:36) (Shotgun) 10-K.Clemens pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – MIN 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 11.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:00) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 68 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 13 yards (83-J.Phillips).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (5:55) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 37 yards to MIN 7, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 21%

    (3:09) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 30 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-K.Allen. MIN-94-J.Trattou was injured during the play.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (1:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:53) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 22 yards to MIN 33, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 19%

    (5:19) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:47) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 60 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-K.Allen to LAC 20 for no gain (85-R.Ellison). PENALTY on LAC-15-D.Inman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:57) 5-M.Scifres punts 51 yards to MIN 37, Center-47-M.Windt. 35-M.Sherels to LAC 43 for 20 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:10) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 24 for 5 yards (43-B.Oliver). PENALTY on MIN-44-M.Asiata, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 24.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 19%

    (10:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 45 for -4 yards (sack split by 73-S.Floyd and 97-E.Griffen).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

    (8:46) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 28 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.