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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:53) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 22 yards to MIN 33, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model