Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 24 for 5 yards (43-B.Oliver). PENALTY on MIN-44-M.Asiata, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model