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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 45 for -4 yards (sack split by 73-S.Floyd and 97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model