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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 88

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 5-M.Scifres punts 51 yards to MIN 37, Center-47-M.Windt. 35-M.Sherels to LAC 43 for 20 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model