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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 87

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 68 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 13 yards (83-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth -0.30 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 87, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 45, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP