Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 11.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +3.01 EP
51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model