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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:46) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 28 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP