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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +1.23 EP
KICK +3.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.24 EP
PUNT +1.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP