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IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

IND
18.3%
TEN
81.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN defense: -0.203 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.275 vs Andrew Luck (IND) -0.022 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 17
–
TEN 30
Projected margin: TEN by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

IND

Dwayne Allen TE Out Ankle
Darius Butler CB Out Hip
Gregory Toler CB Out Neck
Trent Cole LB Questionable Knee
Sheldon Price CB Questionable Ankle
Vontae Davis CB Questionable Concussion
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Not Injury Related
Andre Johnson WR Probable Not Injury Related
Lance Louis G Probable Shoulder
Jonathan Newsome LB Probable Hamstring
Bjoern Werner LB Probable Not Injury Related
Robert Mathis LB Probable Achilles

TEN

Sammie Lee Hill DT Out Knee
Cody Riggs CB Out Knee
Chance Warmack G Out Knee
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin
Antonio Andrews RB Probable Hamstring
Zach Brown LB Probable Illness
Marqueston Huff S Probable Hamstring
Delanie Walker TE Probable Hand
Derrick Morgan LB Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 35
–
TEN 33

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:46 TD IND (5:46) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 13:12 TD IND (13:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lowery (35-J.Thomas) at IND 31. 33-D.Lowery for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 0
  • Q2 08:33 FG TEN (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 14 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:24 TD TEN (:24) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 13-K.Wright for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 9
  • Q3 09:57 TD TEN (9:57) 26-A.Andrews left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 16
  • Q3 09:41 TD TEN (9:41) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 23
  • Q3 03:08 FG TEN (3:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 14 – TEN 27
  • Q4 06:58 TD IND (6:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 15-P.Dorsett for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – TEN 27
  • Q4 05:59 TD IND (5:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 27 – TEN 27
  • Q4 02:57 TD IND (2:57) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 34 – TEN 27
  • Q4 00:51 TD TEN (:51) 45-J.Fowler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 35 – TEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (13:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:00) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 12 for -1 yards (42-C.Geathers).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to IND 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 41%

    (2:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to IND 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (:55) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to TEN 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:37) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to TEN 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 27 for 2 yards (51-S.Moore; 38-T.Varga). PENALTY on TEN-51-D.Bass, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:40) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to TEN 34, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:32) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee right end pushed ob at IND 38 for 18 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (5:19) 45-J.Fowler left guard to IND 1 for 3 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:22) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 21 for -2 yards (42-C.Geathers).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%

    (12:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to IND 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.