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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:40) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to TEN 34, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model