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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 27 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model