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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 3

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP