Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to TEN 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 27 for 2 yards (51-S.Moore; 38-T.Varga). PENALTY on TEN-51-D.Bass, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model