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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model