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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(12:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to IND 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.31 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model