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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 12 for -1 yards (42-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model