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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 21 for -2 yards (42-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model