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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2015-09-17 · 20:25 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN
20.7%
KC
79.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.275 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.170 vs Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.274 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.212 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.375 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Alex Smith (KC) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DEN 16
–
KC 26
Projected margin: KC by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DEN

Kenny Anunike DE Out Knee
Omar Bolden S Doubtful Foot
C.J. Anderson RB Questionable Ankle
Malik Jackson DE Questionable Head
Darian Stewart S Questionable Groin
David Bruton S Probable Hip
Peyton Manning QB Probable Back
Brandon Marshall LB Probable Foot
Lerentee McCray LB Probable Groin
Demaryius Thomas WR Probable Hand

KC

Husain Abdullah S Probable Quadricep
D.J. Alexander LB Probable Hamstring
Jeff Allen G Probable Knee
Jason Avant WR Probable Hip
Eric Fisher T Probable Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Probable Neck
Demetrius Harris TE Probable Foot
Travis Kelce TE Probable Hip
Jeremy Maclin WR Probable Back
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Achilles
Dontari Poe DT Probable Back
De'Anthony Thomas WR Probable Calf
Charcandrick West RB Probable Achilles
Albert Wilson WR Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 31
–
KC 24

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:20 TD KC (9:20) (Shotgun) 25-J.Charles left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 06:37 TD KC (6:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at KC 45. 22-M.Peters for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 02:36 TD DEN (2:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 14
  • Q2 00:54 TD DEN (:54) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 85-V.Green for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – KC 14
  • Q3 09:51 FG KC (9:51) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 14 – KC 17
  • Q3 03:23 FG DEN (3:23) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 17 – KC 17
  • Q4 02:32 TD KC (2:32) 34-K.Davis left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:40 TD DEN (:40) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – KC 24
  • Q4 00:35 TD DEN (:35) (Shotgun) 25-J.Charles up the middle to KC 21 for 1 yard (54-B.Marshall). FUMBLES (54-B.Marshall), RECOVERED by DEN-29-B.Roby at KC 21. 29-B.Roby for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. DEN 30 – KC 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to KC 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas ran ob at KC 21 for 8 yards (30-D.Bruton).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to KC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 42 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis). PENALTY on KC-35-C.West, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 4 yards (48-S.Barrett). Denver challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 4 yards (16-B.Fowler). FUMBLES (16-B.Fowler), RECOVERED by DEN-51-T.Davis at KC 31. 51-T.Davis to KC 31 for no gain (35-C.West). Penalty on KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 85%

    (12:44) 10-E.Sanders left guard to KC 22 for no gain (38-R.Parker).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 91%

    (9:51) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%

    (6:24) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to KC 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (3:23) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on DEN-51-T.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to KC 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 25 for 2 yards (52-C.Nelson). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (11:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to DEN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (10:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to KC 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-30-D.Bruton.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to KC 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-30-D.Bruton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.