Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 95

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to KC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 42 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis). PENALTY on KC-35-C.West, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42.

The Three Options

GO -4.43 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth -0.20 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 95, worth -5.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model