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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to DEN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model