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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.19 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model