Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 74

Denver Broncos 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to KC 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 25 for 2 yards (52-C.Nelson). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.35 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model