Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 83

Denver Broncos 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(10:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to KC 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-30-D.Bruton.

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.19 EP
76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model