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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 58

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to KC 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas ran ob at KC 21 for 8 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP