Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 14

(5:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.06 EP
55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model