Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 4 yards (48-S.Barrett). Denver challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 4 yards (16-B.Fowler). FUMBLES (16-B.Fowler), RECOVERED by DEN-51-T.Davis at KC 31. 51-T.Davis to KC 31 for no gain (35-C.West). Penalty on KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.29 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model