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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-01-18 · 15:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

HOU
26.8%
NE
73.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Drake Maye (NE) +0.275 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.158 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

HOU

Justin Watson WR Out Concussion
Nico Collins WR Out Concussion
Trent Brown T Questionable Ankle

NE

Harold Landry III LB Questionable Knee
Terrell Jennings RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 16
–
NE 28

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:41 TD NE (9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 05:29 FG HOU (5:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 12:57 TD HOU (12:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – NE 7
  • Q2 10:41 TD NE (10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – NE 13
  • Q2 03:17 TD NE (3:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – NE 20
  • Q3 09:48 FG HOU (9:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 13 – NE 21
  • Q3 01:37 FG HOU (1:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 16 – NE 21
  • Q4 13:05 TD NE (13:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 16 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Noel to HOU 26 for 11 yards (49-C.Muma).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NE 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones to NE 34 for 19 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%

    (9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (5:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 65%

    (2:24) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb right guard to NE 36 for 2 yards (95-K.Tonga).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

    (6:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NE 46, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones to NE 44 for -2 yards (42-J.Ingram; 31-D.Clark). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 38%

    (1:10) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to NE 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at HOU 45 for 24 yards (40-A.Brinkman).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 45%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Ingram at HOU -7. Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (9:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:34) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to HOU 41, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

    (1:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:09) 6-T.Townsend punts 69 yards to NE 4, impetus ends at NE 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (5:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to HOU 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to NE 16, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 28 for 12 yards (42-J.Ingram).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to HOU 21, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Noel to HOU 28 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (14-R.Spillane).