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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 46

New England Patriots 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Ingram at HOU -7. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP