Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 73

Houston Texans 16 – New England Patriots 28

(12:09) 6-T.Townsend punts 69 yards to NE 4, impetus ends at NE 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.72 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model