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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Noel to HOU 26 for 11 yards (49-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.93 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP