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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 38

Houston Texans 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb right guard to NE 36 for 2 yards (95-K.Tonga).

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model