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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NE 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones to NE 34 for 19 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model