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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 7

Houston Texans 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP