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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 52

New England Patriots 28 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to HOU 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model