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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

IND
62.7%
PIT
37.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.274 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) +0.112 vs Daniel Jones (IND) +0.136 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 27
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

Samson Ebukam DE Out Knee
Tyquan Lewis DE Out Groin
Anthony Gould WR Out Knee
Grover Stewart DT Questionable Foot

PIT

Jabrill Peppers S Out Quadricep
Scott Miller WR Out Finger
Cory Trice Jr. CB Out Hamstring
Chuck Clark S Questionable Illness
Cole Holcomb LB Questionable Illness
Malik Harrison LB Questionable Knee
Will Howard QB Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
PIT 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:07 TD IND (8:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 06:13 TD PIT (6:13) 30-J.Warren left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 04:27 TD PIT (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – PIT 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. IND 7 – PIT 17
  • Q4 14:21 TD PIT (14:21) 30-J.Warren left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – PIT 23
  • Q4 10:50 FG IND (10:50) 12-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – PIT 24
  • Q4 06:55 FG PIT (6:55) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. IND 10 – PIT 27
  • Q4 04:35 TD IND (4:35) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – PIT 27
  • Q4 00:13 FG IND (:13) 12-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – PIT 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:32) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 21 for 11 yards (26-B.Echols).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 98%

    (9:38) 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 5 for 2 yards (95-K.Benton).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 99%

    (8:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (4:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Washington.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 78%

    (:30) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-R.Thomas. 25-R.Thomas up the middle to IND 28 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (9:14) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to IND 16 for 4 yards (20-N.Cross; 98-E.Johnson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 85-K.Williams to PIT 18 for 8 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 16-A.Dulin).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 77%

    (13:16) 17-D.Jones up the middle to IND 37 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward; 41-P.Wilson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 85-K.Williams ran ob at PIT 20 for 15 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%

    (10:50) 12-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:39) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 32 for 12 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (6:55) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 20 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:13) 3-C.Waitman punts 59 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. Penalty on IND-31-T.Goodson, Defensive Offside, declined.