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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 85-K.Williams ran ob at PIT 20 for 15 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model