4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model